Aston Villa v Manchester City

Premier League · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 12:30 BST (UK time)

Bookmaker odds

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Premier League table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 20 Oct 2026 02:21 BST

#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
1Manchester City77001221WWWWWW
12Aston Villa7223-48LDLWDW

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 10:59 BST.

Aston Villa

  1. Zion Suzuki 1 Goalkeeper
  2. Ian Maatsen 22 Left-back
  3. Pau Torres 14 Centre-back
  4. Victor Lindelöf 3 Centre-back
  5. Matty Cash 2 Right-back
  6. Boubacar Kamara 8 Defensive midfielder
  7. João Gomes 8 Defensive midfielder
  8. Emiliano Buendía 10 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Johan Manzambi 44 Attacking midfielder
  10. John McGinn 7 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Nicolas Jackson 15 Forward

Manchester City

  1. Gianluigi Donnarumma 1 Goalkeeper
  2. Nico O'Reilly 33 Left-back
  3. Marc Guéhi 6 Centre-back
  4. Rúben Dias 3 Centre-back
  5. Matheus Nunes 27 Right-back
  6. Elliot Anderson 8 Defensive midfielder
  7. Enzo Fernández 8 Defensive midfielder
  8. Jérémy Doku 11 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Rayan Cherki 10 Attacking midfielder
  10. Iliman Ndiaye 10 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Erling Haaland 9 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Aston Villa

  • Aaron Wan-Bissaka — Out · Injured
  • Amadou Onana — Out · Injured
  • Matteo Ruggeri — Out · Injured
  • Johan Manzambi — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
  • George Hemmings — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Manchester City

  • Antoine Semenyo — Out · Injured
  • Josko Gvardiol — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Includes 1 stale stored captures; prices may no longer be offered.

BetModel chancesMarket estimateMarket
Highest Odds
Home
16.4%
19.9%
First captured 21.5%
17 Oct 21:15 BST
5.20 (≈4/1)
First captured 4.70 (≈7/2)
17 Oct 21:15 BST

Betfair Exchange, Smarkets
Draw
26.8%
21.9%
First captured 23.0%
17 Oct 21:15 BST
4.60 (≈7/2)
First captured 4.40 (≈10/3)
17 Oct 21:15 BST

Betfair Exchange, Smarkets
Away
56.8%
58.2%
First captured 55.5%
17 Oct 21:15 BST
1.74 (≈8/11)

Matchbook

Market estimate: average of 21 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 43.2%

  • Primary: £7.77 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £38.85
  • Cover: £2.23 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £28.85 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 56.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.68 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 43.2%

  • Primary: £8.00 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £36.00
  • Cover: £2.00 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £26.00 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 56.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.68 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 73.2%

  • Primary: £4.01 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £20.05
  • Cover: £5.99 on Away at 1.67 with Coral — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £10.05 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 26.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.52 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 73.2%

  • Primary: £8.00 on Away at 1.67 with Coral — returns £13.36
  • Cover: £2.00 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £3.36 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 26.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.52 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 83.6%

  • Primary: £4.01 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £18.05
  • Cover: £5.99 on Away at 1.67 with Coral — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £8.05 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 16.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.18 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 83.6%

  • Primary: £7.77 on Away at 1.67 with Coral — returns £12.98
  • Cover: £2.23 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £2.98 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 16.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.18 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Team-data forecast: recent player stats were pending when these chances were published. An updated forecast may replace it before kickoff.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v8; data frozen-05a6c3eb0d345445fb15615d9baeb31fba39c03c95b410733eee57e78c52166c; generated 23 Oct 2026 10:15 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/lineup-1983617-predicted-40ddf896fec4-86aea82a5c785d80.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v8 · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v6 · Forecast snapshot 385ad47a5e40f0deb54ffaf9b9c3e25d

Model code SHA-256: 92fe2f81b13e8a75a998b54ca6d4c2879d837b53bf936a65d6ba7249ea405be8.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Aston Villa ↓ Away · Manchester City ↑

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Aston VillaAway · Manchester City
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↓Current points per game 0.833333333333 ↑Current points per game3.00
↓Current matches 6 ↑Current matches7
↓Current form points per game 1.00 ↑Current form points per game3.00
=Current form matches 5 =Current form matches5
↓Current venue points per game 0.333333333333 ↑Current venue points per game3.00
=Current venue matches 3 =Current venue matches3
↓Current goals scored per game 1.00 ↑Current goals scored per game2.714285714286
↑Current goals conceded per game 1.833333333333 ↓Current goals conceded per game1.00
↓Current form goals scored per game 1.20 ↑Current form goals scored per game2.60
↑Current form goals conceded per game 1.40 ↓Current form goals conceded per game1.00
↓Current venue goals scored per game 1.00 ↑Current venue goals scored per game2.666666666667
↑Current venue goals conceded per game 1.666666666667 ↓Current venue goals conceded per game0.333333333333

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.