Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford

Championship · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Championship table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 21 Oct 2026 11:25 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	11	5	3	3	3	18	Win: WWin: WLoss: LLoss: LWin: WDraw: D
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Win: WLoss: LLoss: LLoss: LLoss: LWin: W

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 10:59 BST.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

José Sá 1 Goalkeeper
Hugo Bueno 3 Left-back
Nasser Djiga 34 Centre-back
Ladislav Krejcí 37 Centre-back
Jackson Tchatchoua 38 Right-back
André 7 Central midfielder
Jordan James 6 Central midfielder
Fer López 28 Central midfielder
Mateus Mané 36 Left forward
Adam Armstrong 10 Forward
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 27 Right forward

Watford

Federico Ravaglia 1 Goalkeeper
Soumaïla Coulibaly 3 Centre-back
Kévin Keben 4 Centre-back
Mattie Pollock 6 Centre-back
Jordan Zemura 33 Left wing-back
Edo Kayembe 39 Central midfielder
Hector Kyprianou 5 Central midfielder
Martín Payero 22 Central midfielder
Krépin Diatta 15 Right wing-back
Rocco Vata 11 Forward
Luca Kjerrumgaard 9 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Raúl Jiménez — Out · Injured
Boubacar Traoré — Out · Injured
Rodrigo Gomes — Out · Injured
Adam Armstrong — Doubtful · Unfit
Kieran Trippier — Doubtful · Unfit
Bertrand Traoré — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Watford

Edoardo Bove — Out · Injured
Jack Grieves — Out · Injured
Kwadwo Baah — Out · Injured
Jeremy Ngakia — Out · Unfit
Michail Antonio — Out · Unfit
Iker Bravo — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	62.5%	69.0% First captured 65.5% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	1.41 (≈2/5) First captured 1.42 (≈2/5) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook
Draw	23.9%	19.0% First captured 20.3% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	5.30 (≈9/2) First captured 4.70 (≈7/2) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook
Away	13.6%	12.0% First captured 14.1% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	9.20 (≈8/1) First captured 6.75 (≈11/2) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Matchbook

Market estimate: average of 20 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 86.4%

Primary: £8.07 on Home at 1.37 with LiveScore Bet — returns £11.06
Cover: £1.93 on Draw at 5.20 with LeoVegas — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £1.06 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 13.6%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £10.84 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 86.4%

Primary: £2.70 on Draw at 5.20 with LeoVegas — returns £14.04
Cover: £7.30 on Home at 1.37 with LiveScore Bet — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £4.04 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 13.6%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 76.1%

Primary: £8.82 on Home at 1.37 with LiveScore Bet — returns £12.08
Cover: £1.18 on Away at 8.50 with Betfred — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £2.08 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 23.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £11.80 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 76.1%

Primary: £2.70 on Away at 8.50 with Betfred — returns £22.95
Cover: £7.30 on Home at 1.37 with LiveScore Bet — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £12.95 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 23.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 37.5%

Primary: £8.82 on Draw at 5.20 with LeoVegas — returns £45.86
Cover: £1.18 on Away at 8.50 with Betfred — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £35.86 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 62.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £32.26 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 37.5%

Primary: £8.07 on Away at 8.50 with Betfred — returns £68.60
Cover: £1.93 on Draw at 5.20 with LeoVegas — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £58.60 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 62.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening; data frozen-13d66041ec2f7404b1ccad7c2ca36f80596df071a0445b8ad6f781c782382a02; generated 23 Oct 2026 00:16 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/fallback-full-20261023-v1-1dad6975e4be6224.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3 · Forecast snapshot 37e3d0a5ea45699d0b81e50283ba4713

Model code SHA-256: b31c10d9ed8b715a6089f72e402584000d731c62bd860d7f955da3d3fee8110d.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Wolverhampton Wanderers ↑	Away · Watford ↓

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Wolverhampton Wanderers		Away · Watford
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Current points per game	1.636363636364	↓Current points per game	1.00
=Current matches	11	=Current matches	11
↑Current form points per game	1.40	↓Current form points per game	0.60
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
↑Current venue points per game	1.60	↓Current venue points per game	0.20
=Current venue matches	5	=Current venue matches	5
↑Current goals scored per game	1.727272727273	↓Current goals scored per game	0.909090909091
↓Current goals conceded per game	1.454545454545	↑Current goals conceded per game	1.727272727273
↑Current form goals scored per game	1.00	↓Current form goals scored per game	0.80
↓Current form goals conceded per game	1.20	↑Current form goals conceded per game	2.40
↑Current venue goals scored per game	1.80	↓Current venue goals scored per game	0.40
↓Current venue goals conceded per game	1.40	↑Current venue goals conceded per game	2.00

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Wolverhampton Wanderers		Away · Watford
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Rating	6.885060819925	↓Rating	6.754324711414
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	632.040742979369	↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	648.399565201924
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	8.702358684407	↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	9.116578506925
↑Active pool players	23	↓Active pool players	22
↑Goals per 90	0.125841557694	↓Goals per 90	0.086615625876
↑Assists per 90	0.09066293191	↓Assists per 90	0.041824298866
↑Shots per 90	1.336633015929	↓Shots per 90	1.17695899034
↓Shots on target per 90	0.352023777173	↑Shots on target per 90	0.393011614975
↑Key passes per 90	0.996449035562	↓Key passes per 90	0.783546370921
↓Saves per 90	0.238133342943	↑Saves per 90	0.382603800105

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Wolverhampton Wanderers		Away · Watford
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.75	↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.657142857143
↓Goalkeeper rating	6.56	↑Goalkeeper rating	6.98

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Wolverhampton Wanderers		Away · Watford
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Strength rating rating	1510.062896858841	↓Strength rating rating	1433.728596115984
↓Strength rating prior matches	315.00	↑Strength rating prior matches	355.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Wolverhampton Wanderers		Away · Watford
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Shot suppression ratio	0.749502068558	↑Shot suppression ratio	1.355743070797
↓Shots on target suppression ratio	0.826942711288	↑Shots on target suppression ratio	1.644236453202
↓Keypass suppression ratio	0.66071760067	↑Keypass suppression ratio	1.416386711801

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.