Lincoln City v Burnley

Championship · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Championship table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 21 Oct 2026 11:25 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
18	Lincoln City	11	3	3	5	-10	12	Win: WWin: WLoss: LLoss: LLoss: LDraw: D
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-5	8	Draw: DLoss: LDraw: DWin: WDraw: DLoss: L

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 10:59 BST.

Lincoln City

George Wickens 1 Goalkeeper
Callum Elder 20 Centre-back
Sonny Bradley 15 Centre-back
Ryley Towler 6 Centre-back
Adam Reach 3 Left wing-back
Ivan Varfolomeev 24 Central midfielder
Conor McGrandles 14 Central midfielder
Andrei Coubis 4 Right wing-back
Chiedozie Ogbene 21 Left forward
Rob Street 17 Forward
Reeco Hackett 7 Right forward

Burnley

Grégoire Coudert 37 Goalkeeper
Lucas Pires 23 Left-back
Igor Julio 3 Centre-back
Hjalmar Ekdal 18 Centre-back
Kyle Walker 2 Right-back
Reo Hatate 5 Defensive midfielder
Max Alleyne 68 Defensive midfielder
Dastan Satpaev 12 Left attacking midfielder
Josh Laurent 29 Attacking midfielder
Largie Ramazani Right attacking midfielder
Jamie Vardy 9 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Lincoln City

Tendayi Darikwa — Out · Injured
Mason Melia — Out · Injured
Deji Elerewe — Out · Suspended
Freddie Draper — Out · Suspended
Tom Hamer — Out · Suspended

Burnley

Enock Agyei — Out · Injured
Bashir Humphreys — Out · Injured
Ashley Barnes — Out · Injured
Hannibal Mejbri — Out · Injured
Aaron Ramsey — Out · Injured
Anel Ahmedhodzic — Out · Injured
Josh Cullen — Doubtful · Unfit
Jaydon Banel — Doubtful · Unfit
Jordan Beyer — Out · Unfit
Zeki Amdouni — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	39.0%	32.9% First captured 36.2% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	2.94 (≈19/10) First captured 2.60 (8/5) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook
Draw	23.9%	27.6% First captured 27.9% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	3.60 (13/5) First captured 3.35 (≈23/10) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Betfred, Matchbook
Away	37.1%	39.5% First captured 35.9% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	2.56 (≈8/5) First captured 2.60 (8/5) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook

Market estimate: average of 20 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 62.9%

Primary: £7.22 on Home at 2.90 with Betano — returns £20.94
Cover: £2.78 on Draw at 3.60 with Betfred — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £10.94 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 37.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.06 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 62.9%

Primary: £6.55 on Draw at 3.60 with Betfred — returns £23.58
Cover: £3.45 on Home at 2.90 with Betano — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £13.58 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 37.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 76.1%

Primary: £5.83 on Home at 2.90 with Betano — returns £16.91
Cover: £4.17 on Away at 2.40 with Casumo — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £6.91 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 23.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.13 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 76.1%

Primary: £6.55 on Away at 2.40 with Casumo — returns £15.72
Cover: £3.45 on Home at 2.90 with Betano — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £5.72 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 23.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 61.0%

Primary: £5.83 on Draw at 3.60 with Betfred — returns £20.99
Cover: £4.17 on Away at 2.40 with Casumo — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £10.99 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 39.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.40 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 61.0%

Primary: £7.22 on Away at 2.40 with Casumo — returns £17.33
Cover: £2.78 on Draw at 3.60 with Betfred — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.33 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 39.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening; data frozen-13d66041ec2f7404b1ccad7c2ca36f80596df071a0445b8ad6f781c782382a02; generated 23 Oct 2026 00:16 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/fallback-full-20261023-v1-1dad6975e4be6224.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3 · Forecast snapshot bf8ab64b1b9235ca5f72de83205d6011

Model code SHA-256: b31c10d9ed8b715a6089f72e402584000d731c62bd860d7f955da3d3fee8110d.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Lincoln City ↓	Away · Burnley ↑

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Lincoln City		Away · Burnley
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Current points per game	1.090909090909	↓Current points per game	0.727272727273
=Current matches	11	=Current matches	11
↓Current form points per game	0.80	↑Current form points per game	1.00
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
↓Current venue points per game	0.40	↑Current venue points per game	0.80
=Current venue matches	5	=Current venue matches	5
↓Current goals scored per game	0.818181818182	↑Current goals scored per game	1.454545454545
↓Current goals conceded per game	1.727272727273	↑Current goals conceded per game	1.909090909091
↓Current form goals scored per game	0.80	↑Current form goals scored per game	1.80
↑Current form goals conceded per game	2.60	↓Current form goals conceded per game	1.60
↓Current venue goals scored per game	0.60	↑Current venue goals scored per game	1.60
↑Current venue goals conceded per game	2.40	↓Current venue goals conceded per game	2.20

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Lincoln City		Away · Burnley
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Rating	6.809218706701	↑Rating	6.822825347769
↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	634.53748040859	↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	542.496925478687
↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	9.03211330814	↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	7.622284955563
↓Active pool players	22	↑Active pool players	24
↓Goals per 90	0.075353751558	↑Goals per 90	0.113517025181
↓Assists per 90	0.046898677123	↑Assists per 90	0.158372121564
↓Shots per 90	0.995338274042	↑Shots per 90	1.187924798608
↓Shots on target per 90	0.243277606274	↑Shots on target per 90	0.301925659183
↓Key passes per 90	0.653434605146	↑Key passes per 90	1.002579398866
↑Saves per 90	0.361885073591	↓Saves per 90	0.283986389132

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Lincoln City		Away · Burnley
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.566666666667	↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.761904761905
↓Goalkeeper rating	6.10	↑Goalkeeper rating	6.875

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Lincoln City		Away · Burnley
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Strength rating rating	1621.801059591855	↓Strength rating rating	1480.868348533537
↓Strength rating prior matches	290.00	↑Strength rating prior matches	331.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Lincoln City		Away · Burnley
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Shot suppression ratio	1.348265716869	↓Shot suppression ratio	1.183929604355
↓Shots on target suppression ratio	1.38	↑Shots on target suppression ratio	1.693716925321
↓Keypass suppression ratio	1.274400115307	↑Keypass suppression ratio	1.282416441557

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.