Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough

Championship · Kickoff 23 Oct 2026 20:00 BST (UK time)

Bookmaker odds

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Championship table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 21 Oct 2026 11:25 BST

#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
3Middlesbrough11641622WDDWWD
15Bolton Wanderers11425-314LWWLWD

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 10:59 BST.

Bolton Wanderers

  1. Gavin Bazunu 31 Goalkeeper
  2. Akin Famewo 23 Left-back
  3. Eoin Toal 18 Centre-back
  4. Lewis Brunt 3 Centre-back
  5. Gaizka Larrazabal 22 Right-back
  6. Ethan Erhahon 21 Defensive midfielder
  7. Josh Sheehan 8 Defensive midfielder
  8. Thierry Gale 11 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Atsuki Ito 17 Attacking midfielder
  10. Samuel Iling-Junior 33 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Sam Dalby 10 Forward

Middlesbrough

  1. Radek Vítek 23 Goalkeeper
  2. Neto Borges 21 Left-back
  3. Ashley Phillips 26 Centre-back
  4. Adilson Malanda 29 Centre-back
  5. Callum Brittain 2 Right-back
  6. Sebastian Berhalter 6 Defensive midfielder
  7. Aidan Morris 10 Defensive midfielder
  8. Tommy Conway 9 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Riley McGree 8 Attacking midfielder
  10. Amario Cozier-Duberry 19 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Will Lankshear 27 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Bolton Wanderers

  • Chris Forino — Out · Injured

Middlesbrough

  • Alfie Jones — Out · Injured
  • Rokas Pukstas — Out · Injured
  • David Strelec — Out · Injured

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

BetModel chancesMarket estimateMarket
Highest Odds
Home
28.0%
19.4%
First captured 21.4%
16 Oct 20:40 BST
5.30 (≈9/2)
First captured 4.40 (≈10/3)
16 Oct 20:40 BST

Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Draw
27.6%
21.6%
First captured 23.4%
16 Oct 20:40 BST
4.60 (≈7/2)
First captured 4.00 (3/1)
16 Oct 20:40 BST

Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Away
44.4%
59.0%
First captured 55.1%
16 Oct 20:40 BST
1.66 (≈4/6)
First captured 1.68 (≈4/6)
16 Oct 20:40 BST

Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets

Market estimate: average of 21 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 55.6%

  • Primary: £7.77 on Home at 5.00 with Betano — returns £38.85
  • Cover: £2.23 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfred — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £28.85 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 44.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.68 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 55.6%

  • Primary: £8.00 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfred — returns £36.00
  • Cover: £2.00 on Home at 5.00 with Betano — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £26.00 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 44.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.68 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 72.4%

  • Primary: £3.93 on Home at 5.00 with Betano — returns £19.65
  • Cover: £6.07 on Away at 1.65 with Coral — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £9.65 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 27.6%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.41 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 72.4%

  • Primary: £8.00 on Away at 1.65 with Coral — returns £13.20
  • Cover: £2.00 on Home at 5.00 with Betano — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £3.20 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 27.6%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.41 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 72.0%

  • Primary: £3.93 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfred — returns £17.69
  • Cover: £6.07 on Away at 1.65 with Coral — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £7.69 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 28.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.07 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 72.0%

  • Primary: £7.77 on Away at 1.65 with Coral — returns £12.82
  • Cover: £2.23 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfred — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £2.82 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 28.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.07 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening; data frozen-13d66041ec2f7404b1ccad7c2ca36f80596df071a0445b8ad6f781c782382a02; generated 23 Oct 2026 00:16 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/fallback-full-20261023-v1-1dad6975e4be6224.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3 · Forecast snapshot f7f542d0d9c0ec984346b9dd456a0b69

Model code SHA-256: b31c10d9ed8b715a6089f72e402584000d731c62bd860d7f955da3d3fee8110d.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Bolton Wanderers ↓ Away · Middlesbrough ↑

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Bolton WanderersAway · Middlesbrough
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↓Current points per game 1.272727272727 ↑Current points per game2.00
=Current matches 11 =Current matches11
↑Current form points per game 2.00 ↓Current form points per game1.80
=Current form matches 5 =Current form matches5
↓Current venue points per game 1.20 ↑Current venue points per game1.60
=Current venue matches 5 =Current venue matches5
↓Current goals scored per game 1.363636363636 ↑Current goals scored per game2.00
↑Current goals conceded per game 1.636363636364 ↓Current goals conceded per game1.454545454545
↓Current form goals scored per game 1.80 ↑Current form goals scored per game2.00
↓Current form goals conceded per game 1.20 ↑Current form goals conceded per game1.60
↓Current venue goals scored per game 1.20 ↑Current venue goals scored per game1.60
=Current venue goals conceded per game 1.40 =Current venue goals conceded per game1.40

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Bolton WanderersAway · Middlesbrough
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↓Rating 6.932730851585 ↑Rating7.012654774643
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes 575.708886037918 ↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes719.861534126945
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances 8.293703266794 ↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances9.917510612466
↑Active pool players 23 ↓Active pool players20
↓Goals per 90 0.123840842761 ↑Goals per 900.185371129426
↓Assists per 90 0.072098012017 ↑Assists per 900.123273814071
↓Shots per 90 1.181697349597 ↑Shots per 901.76184986727
↓Shots on target per 90 0.409427786859 ↑Shots on target per 900.56828816078
↓Key passes per 90 0.96687134798 ↑Key passes per 901.254932461431
↑Saves per 90 0.340775946398 ↓Saves per 900.196347588552

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Bolton WanderersAway · Middlesbrough
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↑Goalkeeper save proportion 0.739130434783 ↓Goalkeeper save proportion0.571428571429
↑Goalkeeper rating 7.22 ↓Goalkeeper rating6.62

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Bolton WanderersAway · Middlesbrough
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↓Strength rating rating 1566.177295803154 ↑Strength rating rating1589.958524636476
↑Strength rating prior matches 295.00 ↓Strength rating prior matches292.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Bolton WanderersAway · Middlesbrough
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↑Shot suppression ratio 0.902041189166 ↓Shot suppression ratio0.742414083169
↑Shots on target suppression ratio 0.910990135185 ↓Shots on target suppression ratio0.690811128527
↑Keypass suppression ratio 0.943135981429 ↓Keypass suppression ratio0.872970729024

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