Cardiff City v Birmingham City

Championship · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Championship table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 21 Oct 2026 11:25 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
4	Birmingham City	11	5	5	1	9	20	Loss: LWin: WDraw: DWin: WWin: WWin: W
19	Cardiff City	11	2	5	4	1	11	Draw: DLoss: LWin: WLoss: LWin: WDraw: D

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 10:59 BST.

Cardiff City

Nathan Trott 13 Goalkeeper
Joel Bagan 3 Left-back
Will Fish 2 Centre-back
Krystian Bielik 5 Centre-back
Ronan Kpakio 44 Right-back
Alex Robertson 18 Defensive midfielder
Chris Willock 16 Left midfielder
David Turnbull 14 Central midfielder
Cian Ashford 45 Central midfielder
Ollie Tanner 11 Right midfielder
Jack Moylan 10 Forward

Birmingham City

James Beadle 25 Goalkeeper
Alex Cochrane 20 Left-back
Christoph Klarer 4 Centre-back
Phil Neumann 5 Centre-back
Bright Osayi-Samuel 26 Right-back
Max Bird 6 Defensive midfielder
Tomoki Iwata 24 Defensive midfielder
Liam Millar 7 Left attacking midfielder
Jay Stansfield 28 Attacking midfielder
Carlos Vicente 7 Right attacking midfielder
August Priske 9 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Cardiff City

Calum Chambers — Out · Injured
Dylan Lawlor — Out · Injured
Rubin Colwill — Out · Injured
Gabriel Keita — Out · Suspended
Yousef Salech — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Birmingham City

Marc Leonard — Out · Injured
Paik Seung-Ho — Out · Injured

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	48.5%	35.1% First captured 38.2% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	2.86 (≈15/8) First captured 2.62 (≈13/8) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Matchbook, Smarkets
Draw	24.7%	25.5% First captured 26.5% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	3.95 (≈3/1) First captured 3.75 (11/4) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Away	26.8%	39.4% First captured 35.3% 17 Oct 15:43 BST	2.50 (6/4) First captured 2.75 (7/4) 17 Oct 15:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets

Market estimate: average of 21 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 73.2%

Primary: £7.33 on Home at 2.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £20.16
Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £10.16 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 26.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £15.87 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 73.2%

Primary: £6.36 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £23.85
Cover: £3.64 on Home at 2.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £13.85 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 26.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 75.3%

Primary: £5.91 on Home at 2.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £16.25
Cover: £4.09 on Away at 2.45 with Coral — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £6.25 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 24.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.96 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 75.3%

Primary: £6.36 on Away at 2.45 with Coral — returns £15.58
Cover: £3.64 on Home at 2.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £5.58 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 24.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 51.5%

Primary: £5.91 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £22.16
Cover: £4.09 on Away at 2.45 with Coral — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £12.16 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 48.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.82 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 51.5%

Primary: £7.33 on Away at 2.45 with Coral — returns £17.96
Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.96 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 48.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening; data frozen-13d66041ec2f7404b1ccad7c2ca36f80596df071a0445b8ad6f781c782382a02; generated 23 Oct 2026 00:16 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/fallback-full-20261023-v1-1dad6975e4be6224.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3 · Forecast snapshot 6a14c480446b9932e9526ebfdd3cfee4

Model code SHA-256: b31c10d9ed8b715a6089f72e402584000d731c62bd860d7f955da3d3fee8110d.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Cardiff City ↑	Away · Birmingham City ↓

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Cardiff City		Away · Birmingham City
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Current points per game	1.00	↑Current points per game	1.818181818182
=Current matches	11	=Current matches	11
↓Current form points per game	1.40	↑Current form points per game	2.60
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
↓Current venue points per game	1.80	↑Current venue points per game	2.00
=Current venue matches	5	=Current venue matches	5
↓Current goals scored per game	1.636363636364	↑Current goals scored per game	1.818181818182
↑Current goals conceded per game	1.545454545455	↓Current goals conceded per game	1.00
↓Current form goals scored per game	2.20	↑Current form goals scored per game	2.40
↑Current form goals conceded per game	1.40	↓Current form goals conceded per game	0.60
↑Current venue goals scored per game	2.40	↓Current venue goals scored per game	1.20
↑Current venue goals conceded per game	1.20	↓Current venue goals conceded per game	0.80

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Cardiff City		Away · Birmingham City
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Rating	7.029302422985	↓Rating	6.971032525492
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	743.811404524737	↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	797.076651812855
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	9.81221021056	↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	10.014624834306
↓Active pool players	20	↑Active pool players	21
↓Goals per 90	0.129006738492	↑Goals per 90	0.138036493652
↓Assists per 90	0.108213846775	↑Assists per 90	0.131132134108
↑Shots per 90	1.531135693939	↓Shots per 90	1.201387001466
↑Shots on target per 90	0.517625836979	↓Shots on target per 90	0.414252336503
↑Key passes per 90	1.220116871658	↓Key passes per 90	0.914671170111
↑Saves per 90	0.384664191843	↓Saves per 90	0.244496014962

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Cardiff City		Away · Birmingham City
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.758620689655	↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.785714285714
↑Goalkeeper rating	6.88	↓Goalkeeper rating	6.72

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Cardiff City		Away · Birmingham City
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Strength rating rating	1540.341596085044	↑Strength rating rating	1582.211259571278
↑Strength rating prior matches	325.00	↓Strength rating prior matches	287.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Cardiff City		Away · Birmingham City
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Shot suppression ratio	1.162529123965	↓Shot suppression ratio	1.043349050775
↑Shots on target suppression ratio	1.469783549784	↓Shots on target suppression ratio	0.730823762423
↑Keypass suppression ratio	1.216981465485	↓Keypass suppression ratio	1.115746580151

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.