Stoke City v Bristol City

Championship · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST (UK time)

Bookmaker odds

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Championship table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 21 Oct 2026 11:25 BST

#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
6Stoke City11614219DWWWLW
16Bristol City11425-314LLWDLL

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 10:59 BST.

Stoke City

  1. Viktor Johansson 1 Goalkeeper
  2. Luke Graham 5 Centre-back
  3. Bosun Lawal 18 Centre-back
  4. Ben Wilmot 16 Centre-back
  5. Luca Bombino 21 Left wing-back
  6. Ethan Galbraith 30 Central midfielder
  7. Djibril Soumaré 18 Central midfielder
  8. Ben Johnson 18 Right wing-back
  9. Justin Devenny 55 Attacking midfielder
  10. Jack McGlynn 7 Attacking midfielder
  11. Lamine Cissé 11 Forward

Bristol City

  1. Sam Tickle 1 Goalkeeper
  2. Cameron Pring 3 Left-back
  3. Luke McNally 15 Centre-back
  4. Rob Atkinson 5 Centre-back
  5. George Tanner 19 Right-back
  6. Jason Knight 12 Defensive midfielder
  7. Brian De Keersmaecker 14 Defensive midfielder
  8. Yu Hirakawa 7 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Scott Twine 10 Attacking midfielder
  10. Jed Wallace 7 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Dom Ballard 32 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Stoke City

  • Sam Gallagher — Out · Injured
  • Svante Ingelsson — Out · Unfit
  • Aaron Cresswell — Out · Unfit
  • Ato Ampah — Out · Unfit
  • Eric Bocat — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Bristol City

  • Rob Dickie — Out · Injured
  • Joe Williams — Out · Injured
  • Lorent Tolaj — Doubtful · Unfit
  • Noah Eile — Doubtful · Unfit

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

BetModel chancesMarket estimateMarket
Highest Odds
Home
37.3%
39.9%
First captured 40.0%
17 Oct 15:43 BST
2.50 (6/4)
First captured 2.38 (≈11/8)
17 Oct 15:43 BST

Betfair Exchange, Matchbook
Draw
28.8%
28.3%
3.50 (5/2)

Smarkets
Away
33.9%
31.8%
First captured 31.7%
17 Oct 15:43 BST
3.10 (21/10)
First captured 3.00 (2/1)
17 Oct 15:43 BST

Betfair Exchange, Matchbook

Market estimate: average of 21 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 66.1%

  • Primary: £7.05 on Home at 2.40 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £16.92
  • Cover: £2.95 on Draw at 3.40 with Betfred — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £6.92 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 33.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.07 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 66.1%

  • Primary: £5.83 on Draw at 3.40 with Betfred — returns £19.82
  • Cover: £4.17 on Home at 2.40 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £9.82 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 33.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.07 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 71.2%

  • Primary: £6.66 on Home at 2.40 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £15.98
  • Cover: £3.34 on Away at 3.00 with Betano — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £5.98 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 28.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.33 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 71.2%

  • Primary: £5.83 on Away at 3.00 with Betano — returns £17.49
  • Cover: £4.17 on Home at 2.40 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.49 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 28.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.33 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 62.7%

  • Primary: £6.66 on Draw at 3.40 with Betfred — returns £22.64
  • Cover: £3.34 on Away at 3.00 with Betano — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £12.64 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 37.3%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £15.94 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 62.7%

  • Primary: £7.05 on Away at 3.00 with Betano — returns £21.15
  • Cover: £2.95 on Draw at 3.40 with Betfred — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £11.15 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 37.3%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £15.94 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening; data frozen-13d66041ec2f7404b1ccad7c2ca36f80596df071a0445b8ad6f781c782382a02; generated 23 Oct 2026 00:16 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/fallback-full-20261023-v1-1dad6975e4be6224.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3 · Forecast snapshot 008fb952bd655b849ff990695b5e4c27

Model code SHA-256: b31c10d9ed8b715a6089f72e402584000d731c62bd860d7f955da3d3fee8110d.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Stoke City ↑ Away · Bristol City ↓

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Stoke CityAway · Bristol City
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↑Current points per game 1.727272727273 ↓Current points per game1.272727272727
=Current matches 11 =Current matches11
↑Current form points per game 2.40 ↓Current form points per game0.80
=Current form matches 5 =Current form matches5
↑Current venue points per game 1.80 ↓Current venue points per game1.60
=Current venue matches 5 =Current venue matches5
↑Current goals scored per game 1.636363636364 ↓Current goals scored per game1.090909090909
↑Current goals conceded per game 1.454545454545 ↓Current goals conceded per game1.363636363636
↑Current form goals scored per game 1.80 ↓Current form goals scored per game0.40
↑Current form goals conceded per game 1.20 ↓Current form goals conceded per game0.80
↑Current venue goals scored per game 2.00 ↓Current venue goals scored per game1.80
↓Current venue goals conceded per game 1.20 ↑Current venue goals conceded per game1.80

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Stoke CityAway · Bristol City
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↑Rating 6.905043746894 ↓Rating6.787693921842
↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes 695.031646361554 ↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes601.36781671567
↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances 9.207340735259 ↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances8.852968562217
↓Active pool players 20 ↑Active pool players23
↑Goals per 90 0.154169272391 ↓Goals per 900.102391522685
↑Assists per 90 0.08776311095 ↓Assists per 900.066721911709
↓Shots per 90 0.992903513858 ↑Shots per 901.238568005064
↓Shots on target per 90 0.347192486881 ↑Shots on target per 900.385478843469
↓Key passes per 90 0.78356368011 ↑Key passes per 900.960116383823
↑Saves per 90 0.340883998374 ↓Saves per 900.145011544947

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Stoke CityAway · Bristol City
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↑Goalkeeper save proportion 0.739130434783 ↓Goalkeeper save proportion0.5625
↑Goalkeeper rating 7.18 ↓Goalkeeper rating6.26

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Stoke CityAway · Bristol City
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↓Strength rating rating 1477.798367110438 ↑Strength rating rating1489.557755990193
↓Strength rating prior matches 287.00 ↑Strength rating prior matches289.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Stoke CityAway · Bristol City
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↑Shot suppression ratio 1.286594858144 ↓Shot suppression ratio0.97164120995
↑Shots on target suppression ratio 0.995962411609 ↓Shots on target suppression ratio0.781779812196
↑Keypass suppression ratio 1.183533722081 ↓Keypass suppression ratio0.804557319874

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.