Portsmouth v Millwall

Championship · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 12:30 BST (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Championship table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 21 Oct 2026 11:25 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	0	15	Loss: LDraw: DDraw: DWin: WLoss: LDraw: D
13	Portsmouth	11	4	3	4	0	15	Draw: DDraw: DLoss: LWin: WWin: WDraw: D

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 13:57 BST.

Portsmouth

Nicolas Schmid 1 Goalkeeper
Jayden Meghoma 21 Left-back
Regan Poole 5 Centre-back
Madiodio Dia 55 Centre-back
Terry Devlin 24 Right-back
Ebou Adams 38 Defensive midfielder
Marlon Pack 7 Defensive midfielder
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen 76 Left attacking midfielder
Adrian Segecic 10 Attacking midfielder
Abu Kamara 17 Right attacking midfielder
Tyrese Shade 10 Forward

Millwall

Max Crocombe 15 Goalkeeper
Zak Sturge 3 Left-back
Jake Cooper 5 Centre-back
Caleb Taylor 6 Centre-back
Tristan Crama 4 Right-back
Jenson Metcalfe 21 Defensive midfielder
Derek Mazou-Sacko 49 Defensive midfielder
Kyrell Lisbie 17 Left attacking midfielder
Camiel Neghli 10 Attacking midfielder
Romain Esse 14 Right attacking midfielder
Lyndon Dykes 99 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Portsmouth

Jacob Farrell — Out · Injured
Márk Kosznovszky — Out · Injured
Franco Umeh-Chibueze — Out · Injured
Connor Ogilvie — Out · Injured
Josh Murphy — Out · Injured
Luke Brooke-Smith — Out · Injured
Conor Shaughnessy — Out · Injured
Benjamin Arthur — Out · Injured
John Swift — Out · Injured
Keshi Anderson — Out · Injured
Colby Bishop — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Millwall

Casper De Norre — Out · Injured
Mathis Servais — Out · Injured
Mihailo Ivanovic — Out · Injured
Josh Coburn — Out · Injured
Lukas Jensen — Out · Injured
Filip Marschall — Out · Injured
Massimo Luongo — Out · Unfit
Taïryk Arconte — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	46.1%	38.3% First captured 39.5% 17 Oct 12:43 BST	2.62 (≈13/8) First captured 2.38 (≈11/8) 17 Oct 12:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook
Draw	27.0%	28.3% First captured 27.8% 17 Oct 12:43 BST	3.45 (≈12/5) First captured 3.35 (≈23/10) 17 Oct 12:43 BST Smarkets
Away	26.9%	33.4% First captured 32.7% 17 Oct 12:43 BST	3.00 (2/1) First captured 2.85 (≈15/8) 17 Oct 12:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets

Market estimate: average of 21 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 73.1%

Primary: £7.05 on Home at 2.45 with Betano — returns £17.27
Cover: £2.95 on Draw at 3.40 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £7.27 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 26.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.24 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 73.1%

Primary: £5.91 on Draw at 3.40 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £20.09
Cover: £4.09 on Home at 2.45 with Betano — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £10.09 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 26.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 73.0%

Primary: £6.55 on Home at 2.45 with Betano — returns £16.05
Cover: £3.45 on Away at 2.90 with Unibet — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £6.05 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 27.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.28 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 73.0%

Primary: £5.91 on Away at 2.90 with Unibet — returns £17.14
Cover: £4.09 on Home at 2.45 with Betano — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £7.14 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 27.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 53.9%

Primary: £6.55 on Draw at 3.40 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £22.27
Cover: £3.45 on Away at 2.90 with Unibet — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £12.27 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 46.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £15.65 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 53.9%

Primary: £7.05 on Away at 2.90 with Unibet — returns £20.45
Cover: £2.95 on Draw at 3.40 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £10.45 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 46.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening; data frozen-13d66041ec2f7404b1ccad7c2ca36f80596df071a0445b8ad6f781c782382a02; generated 23 Oct 2026 00:16 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/fallback-full-20261023-v1-1dad6975e4be6224.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3 · Forecast snapshot 795bea2160d70946b4cfc89ebc429e54

Model code SHA-256: b31c10d9ed8b715a6089f72e402584000d731c62bd860d7f955da3d3fee8110d.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Portsmouth ↓	Away · Millwall ↑

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Portsmouth		Away · Millwall
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
=Current points per game	1.363636363636	=Current points per game	1.363636363636
=Current matches	11	=Current matches	11
↑Current form points per game	1.60	↓Current form points per game	1.20
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
=Current venue points per game	1.40	=Current venue points per game	1.40
=Current venue matches	5	=Current venue matches	5
↓Current goals scored per game	1.272727272727	↑Current goals scored per game	1.636363636364
↓Current goals conceded per game	1.272727272727	↑Current goals conceded per game	1.636363636364
=Current form goals scored per game	1.40	=Current form goals scored per game	1.40
↓Current form goals conceded per game	1.20	↑Current form goals conceded per game	1.40
↑Current venue goals scored per game	1.60	↓Current venue goals scored per game	1.40
↓Current venue goals conceded per game	1.80	↑Current venue goals conceded per game	2.00

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Portsmouth		Away · Millwall
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Rating	6.882668487492	↑Rating	6.908885581548
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	590.88223891233	↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	673.632363611915
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	8.492015607674	↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	8.918481959507
↓Active pool players	23	↑Active pool players	26
↓Goals per 90	0.107876689535	↑Goals per 90	0.149620898068
↓Assists per 90	0.054321399577	↑Assists per 90	0.083457006923
↑Shots per 90	1.44831056735	↓Shots per 90	1.28751912899
↓Shots on target per 90	0.348027421847	↑Shots on target per 90	0.364318224131
↓Key passes per 90	0.865352803848	↑Key passes per 90	0.939752132483
↑Saves per 90	0.216379885727	↓Saves per 90	0.179668898897

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Portsmouth		Away · Millwall
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.571428571429	↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.611111111111
↑Goalkeeper rating	6.58	↓Goalkeeper rating	6.56

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Portsmouth		Away · Millwall
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Strength rating rating	1506.540865296175	↑Strength rating rating	1569.330767395636
↓Strength rating prior matches	287.00	↑Strength rating prior matches	289.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Portsmouth		Away · Millwall
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Shot suppression ratio	0.787972390063	↑Shot suppression ratio	1.015990959631
↓Shots on target suppression ratio	0.777437510079	↑Shots on target suppression ratio	0.847696015684
↓Keypass suppression ratio	0.864353547884	↑Keypass suppression ratio	1.010579705893

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.