Sheffield United v Derby County

Championship · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 12:30 BST (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Championship table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 21 Oct 2026 11:25 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
11	Sheffield United	11	4	3	4	1	15	Win: WLoss: LLoss: LWin: WLoss: LWin: W
23	Derby County	11	1	3	7	-11	6	Loss: LLoss: LDraw: DDraw: DLoss: LLoss: L

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 13:57 BST.

Sheffield United

Michael Cooper 1 Goalkeeper
Harrison Burrows 14 Left-back
Japhet Tanganga 5 Centre-back
Liam Kitching 15 Centre-back
Hamza Choudhury 17 Right-back
Oliver Arblaster 4 Defensive midfielder
Kalvin Phillips 44 Defensive midfielder
Ben Brereton 25 Left attacking midfielder
Patrick Bamford 45 Attacking midfielder
Tahith Chong 19 Right attacking midfielder
Thomas Cannon 9 Forward

Derby County

Josh Vickers 31 Goalkeeper
Ryan Hedges 19 Left-back
Dion Sanderson 28 Centre-back
Ryan Nyambe 24 Centre-back
Joe Ward 23 Right-back
David Ozoh 52 Defensive midfielder
Oscar Fraulo 29 Defensive midfielder
Bobby Clark 42 Left attacking midfielder
Sam Szmodics 19 Attacking midfielder
Mohammed Fuseini 16 Right attacking midfielder
Carlton Morris 9 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Sheffield United

Femi Seriki — Out · Injured
Mark McGuinness — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
Matt Doherty — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Derby County

Max Johnston — Out · Injured
Patrick Agyemang — Out · Injured
Derry John Murkin — Out · Injured
Matt Clarke — Out · Injured
Craig Forsyth — Out · Injured
Jacob Widell Zetterström — Out · Injured
Charlie Taylor — Out · Injured
Eiran Cashin — Out · Injured
Sondre Langås — Out · Injured
Lewis Travis — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	44.5%	52.1% First captured 48.4% 17 Oct 12:43 BST	1.87 (≈5/6) First captured 1.95 (≈10/11) 17 Oct 12:43 BST Matchbook
Draw	26.5%	24.9% First captured 26.6% 17 Oct 12:43 BST	4.10 (≈3/1) First captured 3.55 (≈5/2) 17 Oct 12:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Away	29.0%	23.0% First captured 25.0% 17 Oct 12:43 BST	4.30 (≈10/3) First captured 3.75 (11/4) 17 Oct 12:43 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets

Market estimate: average of 21 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 71.0%

Primary: £7.50 on Home at 1.85 with LeoVegas — returns £13.88
Cover: £2.50 on Draw at 4.00 with Betway — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £3.88 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 29.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.65 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 71.0%

Primary: £4.59 on Draw at 4.00 with Betway — returns £18.36
Cover: £5.41 on Home at 1.85 with LeoVegas — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £8.36 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 29.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 73.5%

Primary: £7.64 on Home at 1.85 with LeoVegas — returns £14.13
Cover: £2.36 on Away at 4.25 with Casumo — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £4.13 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 26.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.89 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 73.5%

Primary: £4.59 on Away at 4.25 with Casumo — returns £19.51
Cover: £5.41 on Home at 1.85 with LeoVegas — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £9.51 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 26.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 55.5%

Primary: £7.64 on Draw at 4.00 with Betway — returns £30.56
Cover: £2.36 on Away at 4.25 with Casumo — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £20.56 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 44.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £20.61 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 55.5%

Primary: £7.50 on Away at 4.25 with Casumo — returns £31.88
Cover: £2.50 on Draw at 4.00 with Betway — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £21.88 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 44.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening; data frozen-9a4369cec24976fde9750d174d04b74a593006475539763490f5fc216e1b388f; generated 23 Oct 2026 00:10 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/sheffield-derby-20261023-v1-b07191d9e721d0bd.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3-opening · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v3 · Forecast snapshot 4a40717d4c6e6f0da435abd6a4f7492c

Model code SHA-256: b31c10d9ed8b715a6089f72e402584000d731c62bd860d7f955da3d3fee8110d.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Sheffield United ↑	Away · Derby County ↓

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Sheffield United		Away · Derby County
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Current points per game	1.363636363636	↓Current points per game	0.545454545455
=Current matches	11	=Current matches	11
↑Current form points per game	1.20	↓Current form points per game	0.40
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
↑Current venue points per game	1.40	↓Current venue points per game	0.80
=Current venue matches	5	=Current venue matches	5
↑Current goals scored per game	1.363636363636	↓Current goals scored per game	0.818181818182
↓Current goals conceded per game	1.272727272727	↑Current goals conceded per game	1.818181818182
↑Current form goals scored per game	1.40	↓Current form goals scored per game	0.80
↓Current form goals conceded per game	1.20	↑Current form goals conceded per game	1.80
↑Current venue goals scored per game	1.40	↓Current venue goals scored per game	1.00
↓Current venue goals conceded per game	1.20	↑Current venue goals conceded per game	2.00

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Sheffield United		Away · Derby County
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Rating	6.938691337052	↓Rating	6.745282354841
↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	615.13584352921	↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	595.800657533209
↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	8.592569239798	↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	8.121583442658
=Active pool players	24	=Active pool players	24
↑Goals per 90	0.128491851458	↓Goals per 90	0.081007496104
↑Assists per 90	0.10249303268	↓Assists per 90	0.060080235813
↓Shots per 90	0.899939127169	↑Shots per 90	1.153443944692
↓Shots on target per 90	0.307081901926	↑Shots on target per 90	0.370457403359
↓Key passes per 90	0.635150882642	↑Key passes per 90	0.805650956825
↑Saves per 90	0.311192500757	↓Saves per 90	0.246670012597

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Sheffield United		Away · Derby County
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.666666666667	↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.5625
↑Goalkeeper rating	7.04	↓Goalkeeper rating	6.425

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Sheffield United		Away · Derby County
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Strength rating rating	1518.578451670476	↓Strength rating rating	1467.266941388198
↑Strength rating prior matches	314.00	↓Strength rating prior matches	287.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Sheffield United		Away · Derby County
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Shot suppression ratio	0.984068004993	↓Shot suppression ratio	0.964777585503
↓Shots on target suppression ratio	0.906532947643	↑Shots on target suppression ratio	1.311610741176
↓Keypass suppression ratio	0.908834380172	↑Keypass suppression ratio	0.913704186031

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.