Leicester City v Wigan Athletic

League One · Kickoff 27 Oct 2026 19:45 GMT (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

League 1 table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 22 Oct 2026 02:20 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
10	Leicester City	10	4	3	3	1	15	Loss: LWin: WDraw: DLoss: LWin: WWin: W
24	Wigan Athletic	10	2	1	7	-8	7	Loss: LDraw: DLoss: LLoss: LWin: WLoss: L

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Lineups are not available yet.

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	56.3%	59.5%	1.57 (≈4/7) First captured 1.60 (≈8/13) 20 Oct 21:43 BST LeoVegas
Draw	24.6%	22.5% First captured 22.6% 20 Oct 21:43 BST	4.20 (≈10/3) Casumo
Away	19.1%	18.0% First captured 17.9% 20 Oct 21:43 BST	5.40 (≈9/2) Casumo

Market estimate: average of 5 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 80.9%

Primary: £7.61 on Home at 1.57 with LeoVegas — returns £11.95
Cover: £2.39 on Draw at 4.20 with Casumo — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £1.95 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 19.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £11.43 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 80.9%

Primary: £3.63 on Draw at 4.20 with Casumo — returns £15.25
Cover: £6.37 on Home at 1.57 with LeoVegas — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £5.25 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 19.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 75.4%

Primary: £8.14 on Home at 1.57 with LeoVegas — returns £12.78
Cover: £1.86 on Away at 5.40 with Casumo — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £2.78 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 24.6%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.16 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 75.4%

Primary: £3.63 on Away at 5.40 with Casumo — returns £19.60
Cover: £6.37 on Home at 1.57 with LeoVegas — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £9.60 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 24.6%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 43.7%

Primary: £8.14 on Draw at 4.20 with Casumo — returns £34.19
Cover: £1.86 on Away at 5.40 with Casumo — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £24.19 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 56.3%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.63 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 43.7%

Primary: £7.61 on Away at 5.40 with Casumo — returns £41.09
Cover: £2.39 on Draw at 4.20 with Casumo — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £31.09 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 56.3%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v2-code-20261021; data frozen-6e3f9061a143fd5a5a7d090fc0d18d8373e863b5bd03ca620d425316a512ef7e; generated 21 Oct 2026 21:36 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/enhanced-lower-20261021-v1-cb2a3dd7ada12207.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v2-code-20261021 · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v2 · Forecast snapshot 34c02ce1b5da8cef2488b072eadbab9b

Model code SHA-256: a70a8ebaf7b426eee5f6c70e22916be2fcd73674d648f116502e9886891c7096.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Leicester City ↑	Away · Wigan Athletic ↓

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Leicester City		Away · Wigan Athletic
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Current points per game	1.50	↓Current points per game	0.70
=Current matches	10	=Current matches	10
↑Current form points per game	2.00	↓Current form points per game	0.80
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
↑Current venue points per game	1.20	↓Current venue points per game	0.20
=Current venue matches	5	=Current venue matches	5
↑Current goals scored per game	1.60	↓Current goals scored per game	0.70
=Current goals conceded per game	1.50	=Current goals conceded per game	1.50
↑Current form goals scored per game	2.40	↓Current form goals scored per game	0.40
↑Current form goals conceded per game	1.60	↓Current form goals conceded per game	0.80
↑Current venue goals scored per game	1.20	↓Current venue goals scored per game	0.60
↑Current venue goals conceded per game	2.00	↓Current venue goals conceded per game	1.40

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Leicester City		Away · Wigan Athletic
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Rating	6.988983755233	↓Rating	6.839589375581
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	552.219017037501	↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	557.081511940377
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	7.339749704943	↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	7.712064075568
↑Active pool players	26	↓Active pool players	23
↑Goals per 90	0.180085477963	↓Goals per 90	0.046409661594
↑Assists per 90	0.135060277682	↓Assists per 90	0.031734994047
↑Shots per 90	1.3908325405	↓Shots per 90	1.01510479778
↑Shots on target per 90	0.529102383176	↓Shots on target per 90	0.210067416526
↑Key passes per 90	1.093660617578	↓Key passes per 90	0.763469612634
↓Saves per 90	0.290964559775	↑Saves per 90	0.363056362639

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Leicester City		Away · Wigan Athletic
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.666666666667	↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.774193548387
↓Goalkeeper rating	6.82	↑Goalkeeper rating	7.48

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Leicester City		Away · Wigan Athletic
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Strength rating rating	1471.379979171533	↓Strength rating rating	1427.830674700452
↑Strength rating prior matches	330.00	↓Strength rating prior matches	286.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Leicester City		Away · Wigan Athletic
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Shot suppression ratio	0.96592339815	↑Shot suppression ratio	1.258653100564
↑Shots on target suppression ratio	1.155403726708	↓Shots on target suppression ratio	0.991726084373
↓Keypass suppression ratio	0.826782979371	↑Keypass suppression ratio	1.093998191914

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