Oxford United v Stockport County FC

League One · Kickoff 27 Oct 2026 19:45 GMT (UK time)

Bookmaker odds

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

League 1 table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 22 Oct 2026 02:20 BST

#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
1Stockport County117131222LDWWWW
8Oxford United9531818WWDWDW

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Lineups are not available yet.

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

BetModel chancesMarket estimateMarket
Highest Odds
Home
19.8%
28.2%
3.30 (23/10)

Casumo
Draw
26.3%
26.2%
First captured 26.1%
20 Oct 21:43 BST
3.55 (≈5/2)
First captured 3.65 (≈13/5)
20 Oct 21:43 BST

LeoVegas
Away
54.0%
45.6%
2.05 (21/20)
First captured 2.08 (≈11/10)
20 Oct 21:43 BST

LeoVegas

Market estimate: average of 5 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 46.0%

  • Primary: £7.18 on Home at 3.30 with Casumo — returns £23.69
  • Cover: £2.82 on Draw at 3.55 with LeoVegas — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £13.69 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 54.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £17.10 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 46.0%

  • Primary: £6.96 on Draw at 3.55 with LeoVegas — returns £24.71
  • Cover: £3.04 on Home at 3.30 with Casumo — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £14.71 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 54.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £17.10 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 73.7%

  • Primary: £5.12 on Home at 3.30 with Casumo — returns £16.90
  • Cover: £4.88 on Away at 2.05 with LeoVegas — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £6.90 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 26.3%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.64 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 73.7%

  • Primary: £6.96 on Away at 2.05 with LeoVegas — returns £14.27
  • Cover: £3.04 on Home at 3.30 with Casumo — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £4.27 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 26.3%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.64 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 80.2%

  • Primary: £5.12 on Draw at 3.55 with LeoVegas — returns £18.18
  • Cover: £4.88 on Away at 2.05 with LeoVegas — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £8.18 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 19.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.00 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 80.2%

  • Primary: £7.18 on Away at 2.05 with LeoVegas — returns £14.72
  • Cover: £2.82 on Draw at 3.55 with LeoVegas — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £4.72 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 19.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.00 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v2-code-20261021; data frozen-6e3f9061a143fd5a5a7d090fc0d18d8373e863b5bd03ca620d425316a512ef7e; generated 21 Oct 2026 21:36 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/enhanced-lower-20261021-v1-cb2a3dd7ada12207.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-draw-v2-code-20261021 · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-draw-v2 · Forecast snapshot ac6d2a922c6808074cfb70295be836d2

Model code SHA-256: a70a8ebaf7b426eee5f6c70e22916be2fcd73674d648f116502e9886891c7096.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Oxford United ↓ Away · Stockport County FC ↑

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Oxford UnitedAway · Stockport County FC
StatisticValueStatisticValue
=Current points per game 2.00 =Current points per game2.00
↓Current matches 9 ↑Current matches11
↓Current form points per game 2.20 ↑Current form points per game2.60
=Current form matches 5 =Current form matches5
=Current venue points per game 2.00 =Current venue points per game2.00
↓Current venue matches 4 ↑Current venue matches5
↓Current goals scored per game 2.00 ↑Current goals scored per game2.090909090909
↑Current goals conceded per game 1.111111111111 ↓Current goals conceded per game1.00
↑Current form goals scored per game 1.80 ↓Current form goals scored per game1.40
↑Current form goals conceded per game 0.80 ↓Current form goals conceded per game0.20
↑Current venue goals scored per game 2.00 ↓Current venue goals scored per game1.80
↑Current venue goals conceded per game 1.00 ↓Current venue goals conceded per game0.60

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Oxford UnitedAway · Stockport County FC
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↓Rating 7.004559816192 ↑Rating7.23407938132
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes 557.9267577172 ↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes759.083088122722
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances 7.74781372337 ↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances10.05431053341
=Active pool players 21 =Active pool players21
↓Goals per 90 0.171385022881 ↑Goals per 900.190525541073
↑Assists per 90 0.110316682738 ↓Assists per 900.108965146362
↓Shots per 90 1.021754771571 ↑Shots per 901.478291844266
↓Shots on target per 90 0.399994741802 ↑Shots on target per 900.466391763897
↓Key passes per 90 0.794189355242 ↑Key passes per 901.249099312415
↑Saves per 90 0.203843129853 ↓Saves per 900.200154471153

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Oxford UnitedAway · Stockport County FC
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↓Goalkeeper save proportion 0.692307692308 ↑Goalkeeper save proportion0.705882352941
↓Goalkeeper rating 6.633333333333 ↑Goalkeeper rating7.18

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Oxford UnitedAway · Stockport County FC
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↓Strength rating rating 1498.572633634745 ↑Strength rating rating1595.738408983443
↑Strength rating prior matches 290.00 ↓Strength rating prior matches203.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Oxford UnitedAway · Stockport County FC
StatisticValueStatisticValue
↑Shot suppression ratio 1.106956382732 ↓Shot suppression ratio0.573169133012
↓Shots on target suppression ratio 0.645085470085 ↑Shots on target suppression ratio0.834344685243
↑Keypass suppression ratio 1.013021693459 ↓Keypass suppression ratio0.488937855684

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.