Manchester United v Bournemouth

Premier League · Kickoff 25 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Premier League table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 20 Oct 2026 02:21 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
13	Manchester United	7	1	4	2	0	7	Win: WDraw: DLoss: LDraw: DDraw: DDraw: D
15	Bournemouth	7	1	3	3	-4	6	Draw: DDraw: DDraw: DLoss: LLoss: LWin: W

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 10:59 BST.

Manchester United

Senne Lammens 1 Goalkeeper
Noussair Mazraoui 3 Left-back
Leny Yoro 15 Centre-back
Harry Maguire 5 Centre-back
Diogo Dalot 2 Right-back
Andrey Santos 17 Defensive midfielder
Youri Tielemans 8 Defensive midfielder
Matheus Cunha 10 Left attacking midfielder
Bruno Fernandes 8 Attacking midfielder
Amad Diallo 16 Right attacking midfielder
Bryan Mbeumo 19 Forward

Bournemouth

Djordje Petrovic 1 Goalkeeper
Adrien Truffert 3 Left-back
António Silva 14 Centre-back
James Hill 5 Centre-back
Adam Smith 15 Right-back
Lewis Cook 4 Defensive midfielder
Tyler Adams 12 Defensive midfielder
Marcus Tavernier 16 Left attacking midfielder
Ryan Christie 10 Attacking midfielder
Rayan 37 Right attacking midfielder
Evanilson 9 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Manchester United

Luke Shaw — Out · Injured
Kobbie Mainoo — Out · Injured
Manuel Ugarte — Out · Injured
Patrick Dorgu — Out · Injured
Benjamin Sesko — Out · Injured
Lisandro Martínez — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
Marcus Rashford — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
Ayden Heaven — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Bournemouth

Julián Araujo — Out · Injured
Alex Scott — Out · Injured

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	58.8%	44.7% First captured 51.9% 18 Oct 15:22 BST	2.26 (≈5/4) First captured 1.87 (≈5/6) 18 Oct 15:22 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Draw	27.5%	25.9% First captured 23.6% 18 Oct 15:22 BST	3.80 (14/5) First captured 4.25 (≈10/3) 18 Oct 15:22 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Away	13.7%	29.4% First captured 24.5% 18 Oct 15:22 BST	3.35 (≈23/10) First captured 4.10 (≈3/1) 18 Oct 15:22 BST Betfair Exchange, Casumo, Matchbook, Smarkets

Market estimate: average of 21 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 86.3%

Primary: £7.33 on Home at 2.20 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £16.13
Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfred — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £6.13 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 13.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.87 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 86.3%

Primary: £5.45 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfred — returns £20.44
Cover: £4.55 on Home at 2.20 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £10.44 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 13.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 72.5%

Primary: £7.01 on Home at 2.20 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £15.42
Cover: £2.99 on Away at 3.35 with Casumo — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £5.42 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 27.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.28 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 72.5%

Primary: £5.45 on Away at 3.35 with Casumo — returns £18.26
Cover: £4.55 on Home at 2.20 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £8.26 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 27.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 41.2%

Primary: £7.01 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfred — returns £26.29
Cover: £2.99 on Away at 3.35 with Casumo — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £16.29 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 58.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £17.69 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 41.2%

Primary: £7.33 on Away at 3.35 with Casumo — returns £24.56
Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfred — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £14.56 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 58.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v7; data frozen-b0844a5bd47468164c7ea5fb8232b915207fa91e88830f2dcff73e4af00215a8; generated 22 Oct 2026 17:21 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/lineup-1983624-predicted-e9f88314d56a-976c54b3a2604f16.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v7 · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v6 · Forecast snapshot b2915799b7e8f78fa43824a58aa54a21

Model code SHA-256: 5129d61caf26db60e08c6ca1de0d90ba9265bd32610c59ad61ecdeb513de7237.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Manchester United ↑	Away · Bournemouth ↓

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Manchester United		Away · Bournemouth
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Current points per game	1.00	↓Current points per game	0.50
=Current matches	6	=Current matches	6
↑Current form points per game	1.20	↓Current form points per game	0.60
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
↑Current venue points per game	1.333333333333	↓Current venue points per game	0.333333333333
=Current venue matches	3	=Current venue matches	3
↑Current goals scored per game	1.50	↓Current goals scored per game	1.166666666667
↓Current goals conceded per game	1.50	↑Current goals conceded per game	2.166666666667
↑Current form goals scored per game	1.80	↓Current form goals scored per game	1.20
↓Current form goals conceded per game	1.40	↑Current form goals conceded per game	2.20
↑Current venue goals scored per game	2.00	↓Current venue goals scored per game	1.333333333333
↓Current venue goals conceded per game	1.333333333333	↑Current venue goals conceded per game	3.00

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Manchester United		Away · Bournemouth
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Rating	6.919526639368	↓Rating	6.648313968462
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	431.994268520976	↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	451.990583665608
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	5.477056433156	↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	5.698337722845
↑Active pool players	22	↓Active pool players	20
↑Goals per 90	0.115164562155	↓Goals per 90	0.065005585612
↑Assists per 90	0.054165983606	↓Assists per 90	0.054096088522
↑Shots per 90	1.572642121668	↓Shots per 90	0.95928427796
↑Shots on target per 90	0.493641267379	↓Shots on target per 90	0.431415936983
↑Key passes per 90	1.148097822758	↓Key passes per 90	0.706277515705
↑Saves per 90	0.310094918602	↓Saves per 90	0.204080988438

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Manchester United		Away · Bournemouth
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.695652173913	↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.571428571429
↑Goalkeeper rating	7.16	↓Goalkeeper rating	6.525

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Manchester United		Away · Bournemouth
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Strength rating rating	1693.388972252299	↓Strength rating rating	1654.307453873813
↓Strength rating prior matches	310.00	↑Strength rating prior matches	328.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Manchester United		Away · Bournemouth
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Shot suppression ratio	0.67879159012	↓Shot suppression ratio	0.614814814815
↑Shots on target suppression ratio	0.868421052632	↓Shots on target suppression ratio	0.708424908425
↑Keypass suppression ratio	0.638445626478	↓Keypass suppression ratio	0.517072720561

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.