Crystal Palace v Newcastle United

Premier League · Kickoff 25 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Premier League table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 20 Oct 2026 02:21 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
11	Newcastle United	7	2	2	3	-4	8	Win: WDraw: DLoss: LWin: WLoss: LLoss: L
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-8	7	Loss: LWin: WLoss: LDraw: DWin: WLoss: L

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 10:59 BST.

Crystal Palace

Walter Benítez 44 Goalkeeper
Axel Disasi Centre-back
Chris Richards 26 Centre-back
Jaydee Canvot 6 Centre-back
Tyrick Mitchell 3 Left wing-back
Adam Wharton 20 Central midfielder
Jefferson Lerma 8 Central midfielder
Anan Khalaili 25 Right wing-back
Yéremy Pino 10 Attacking midfielder
Daichi Kamada 18 Attacking midfielder
Jørgen Strand Larsen 22 Forward

Newcastle United

Lukás Hornícek 21 Goalkeeper
Lewis Hall 3 Left-back
Sven Botman 4 Centre-back
Malick Thiaw 12 Centre-back
Amar Dedic 37 Right-back
Joelinton 7 Defensive midfielder
Nico González 14 Defensive midfielder
Harvey Barnes 11 Left attacking midfielder
Yoane Wissa 9 Attacking midfielder
Jacob Murphy 23 Right attacking midfielder
Matias Fernandez-Pardo 20 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Crystal Palace

Chadi Riad — Out · Injured
Takehiro Tomiyasu — Out · Injured
Quinten Timber — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
Dean Henderson — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Newcastle United

Ewen Jaouen — Out · Injured
Anthony Elanga — Out · Injured
Jacob Ramsey — Out · Injured
Tino Livramento — Out · Injured

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	43.4%	32.6% First captured 34.4% 18 Oct 15:22 BST	3.05 (≈2/1) First captured 2.94 (≈19/10) 18 Oct 15:22 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Draw	30.7%	26.5% First captured 26.6% 18 Oct 15:22 BST	3.75 (11/4) First captured 3.70 (≈11/4) 18 Oct 15:22 BST BoyleSports
Away	25.9%	40.9% First captured 39.0% 18 Oct 15:22 BST	2.42 (≈7/5) First captured 2.50 (6/4) 18 Oct 15:22 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets

Market estimate: average of 21 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 74.1%

Primary: £7.33 on Home at 2.90 with Betano — returns £21.26
Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £11.26 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 25.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.35 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 74.1%

Primary: £6.55 on Draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports — returns £24.56
Cover: £3.45 on Home at 2.90 with Betano — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £14.56 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 25.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 69.3%

Primary: £5.74 on Home at 2.90 with Betano — returns £16.65
Cover: £4.26 on Away at 2.35 with Unibet — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £6.65 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 30.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.98 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 69.3%

Primary: £6.55 on Away at 2.35 with Unibet — returns £15.39
Cover: £3.45 on Home at 2.90 with Betano — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £5.39 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 30.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 56.6%

Primary: £5.74 on Draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports — returns £21.53
Cover: £4.26 on Away at 2.35 with Unibet — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £11.53 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 43.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.45 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 56.6%

Primary: £7.33 on Away at 2.35 with Unibet — returns £17.23
Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.23 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 43.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v7; data frozen-7bc077692391b799be6230321667ddeb6d5e6953373e1eddc51eda6dc05e4593; generated 22 Oct 2026 17:25 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/lineup-1983620-predicted-77ab3e5d5ff0-5ff2046edc9673ab.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v7 · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v6 · Forecast snapshot 705ef3b1698482ac7a7c86b21f60b366

Model code SHA-256: 5129d61caf26db60e08c6ca1de0d90ba9265bd32610c59ad61ecdeb513de7237.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Crystal Palace =	Away · Newcastle United =

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Crystal Palace		Away · Newcastle United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Current points per game	1.166666666667	↓Current points per game	1.142857142857
↓Current matches	6	↑Current matches	7
↑Current form points per game	1.40	↓Current form points per game	0.80
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
=Current venue points per game	1.00	=Current venue points per game	1.00
=Current venue matches	3	=Current venue matches	3
↑Current goals scored per game	1.50	↓Current goals scored per game	1.428571428571
=Current goals conceded per game	2.00	=Current goals conceded per game	2.00
↑Current form goals scored per game	1.80	↓Current form goals scored per game	1.20
↓Current form goals conceded per game	2.00	↑Current form goals conceded per game	2.40
↑Current venue goals scored per game	2.00	↓Current venue goals scored per game	1.333333333333
=Current venue goals conceded per game	2.666666666667	=Current venue goals conceded per game	2.666666666667

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Crystal Palace		Away · Newcastle United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Rating	7.059485375185	↓Rating	6.770842776693
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	387.820909220514	↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	484.762055947213
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	4.963193406137	↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	6.18883562536
↑Active pool players	27	↓Active pool players	23
↑Goals per 90	0.173162175788	↓Goals per 90	0.02457766406
↓Assists per 90	0.069975741033	↑Assists per 90	0.089472708053
↑Shots per 90	1.051639347242	↓Shots per 90	0.845410356137
↑Shots on target per 90	0.36486667361	↓Shots on target per 90	0.310890879139
↓Key passes per 90	0.781072135958	↑Key passes per 90	0.925698618987
↓Saves per 90	0.23098888883	↑Saves per 90	0.351891541869

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Crystal Palace		Away · Newcastle United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.692307692308	↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.538461538462
↑Goalkeeper rating	7.833333333333	↓Goalkeeper rating	6.76

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Crystal Palace		Away · Newcastle United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Strength rating rating	1603.294013589562	↑Strength rating rating	1621.530214737238
↓Strength rating prior matches	310.00	↑Strength rating prior matches	311.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Crystal Palace		Away · Newcastle United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Shot suppression ratio	1.220235567926	↑Shot suppression ratio	1.43375497052
↓Shots on target suppression ratio	1.216440422323	↑Shots on target suppression ratio	1.42225877193
↓Keypass suppression ratio	0.926267281106	↑Keypass suppression ratio	1.419009596641

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.