Sunderland v Leeds United

Premier League · Kickoff 25 Oct 2026 16:30 GMT (UK time)

Latest captured prices. Arrows compare with the first capture; tap an arrow to see it.

Prediction and market comparison

Premier League table · selected teams

Current saved standings · 2026/2027 · Updated 20 Oct 2026 02:21 BST

League standings for the two teams in this match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Last 6
7	Leeds United	7	2	4	1	3	10	Draw: DDraw: DWin: WDraw: DLoss: LDraw: D
20	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-8	4	Win: WDraw: DLoss: LLoss: LLoss: LLoss: L

Last six league matches · newest on the right. W = win, D = draw, L = loss.

Predicted lineups

Predicted starting lineups — subject to change · Captured 23 Oct 2026 11:53 BST.

Sunderland

Robin Roefs 22 Goalkeeper
Reinildo Mandava 17 Left-back
Omar Alderete 15 Centre-back
Nordi Mukiele 20 Centre-back
Trai Hume 32 Right-back
Noah Sadiki 27 Defensive midfielder
Granit Xhaka 34 Defensive midfielder
Malick Fofana 39 Left attacking midfielder
Enzo Le Fée 28 Attacking midfielder
Nilson Angulo 10 Right attacking midfielder
Wilson Isidor 18 Forward

Leeds United

James Trafford 1 Goalkeeper
Tarik Muharemovic 5 Centre-back
Nico Elvedi 30 Centre-back
James Justin 24 Centre-back
Gabriel Gudmundsson 3 Left wing-back
Ethan Ampadu 4 Central midfielder
Anton Stach 18 Central midfielder
Ao Tanaka 22 Central midfielder
Jayden Bogle 2 Right wing-back
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 9 Forward
Noah Okafor 19 Forward

Reported player availability

Published team news can change. “Out” means the source reports that player unavailable; “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Sunderland

Dan Ballard — Out · Injured
Romaine Mundle — Out · Injured
Kevin Danso — Out · Suspended
Thomas Meunier — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
Brian Brobbey — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Leeds United

Mateo Joseph — Out · Injured
Joe Rodon — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
Daniel James — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

We check for confirmed lineups from 70 minutes before kickoff.

Choose Home, Draw or Away below to make a virtual bet at the highest available captured price.

Bet	Model chances	Market estimate	Market Highest Odds
Home	36.1%	32.1% First captured 33.6% 18 Oct 18:23 BST	3.15 (≈21/10) First captured 3.00 (2/1) 18 Oct 18:23 BST Casumo
Draw	28.2%	29.5% First captured 28.9% 18 Oct 18:23 BST	3.30 (23/10) First captured 3.40 (12/5) 18 Oct 18:23 BST Betfair Exchange, Betfred, Coral, Matchbook, Smarkets
Away	35.8%	38.5% First captured 37.5% 18 Oct 18:23 BST	2.66 (≈13/8) First captured 2.63 (≈13/8) 18 Oct 18:23 BST Betfair Exchange, Matchbook

Market estimate: average of 20 bookmaker price sets after proportional margin adjustment. It is an estimate, not the true chance.

Two-outcome de-riskingand Dutching options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 64.2%

Primary: £6.96 on Home at 3.15 with Casumo — returns £21.92
Cover: £3.04 on Draw at 3.30 with Betfred — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £11.92 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 35.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.12 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 64.2%

Primary: £6.82 on Draw at 3.30 with Betfred — returns £22.51
Cover: £3.18 on Home at 3.15 with Casumo — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £12.51 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 35.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 71.8%

Primary: £6.00 on Home at 3.15 with Casumo — returns £18.90
Cover: £4.00 on Away at 2.50 with Coral — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £8.90 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 28.2%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.94 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 71.8%

Primary: £6.82 on Away at 2.50 with Coral — returns £17.05
Cover: £3.18 on Home at 3.15 with Casumo — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £7.05 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 28.2%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 63.9%

Primary: £6.00 on Draw at 3.30 with Betfred — returns £19.80
Cover: £4.00 on Away at 2.50 with Coral — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £9.80 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 36.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.22 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 63.9%

Primary: £6.96 on Away at 2.50 with Coral — returns £17.40
Cover: £3.04 on Draw at 3.30 with Betfred — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £7.40 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 36.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Confidence is the predicted probability of each outcome. Model enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v7; data frozen-efb0e4b54864b6b959a99964581454723aee583f3d8c0ca030d697c796c8c2a5; generated 22 Oct 2026 17:53 BST (UK time). Published as main-model-sofascore/lineup-1983625-predicted-3ebfefd6f209-4f5b9762b50307d5.

Published main-model release

Release enhanced-eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v7 · Feature schema eg2-s1-h2-whoscored-lineup-blend-draw-v6 · Forecast snapshot b5cc4fa5a39f57222f3c9d384a0fa254

Model code SHA-256: 5129d61caf26db60e08c6ca1de0d90ba9265bd32610c59ad61ecdeb513de7237.

Statistics used by this prediction

These are the saved inputs that contribute to this forecast. Trailing zeroes are shortened for display; match and player counts are whole numbers. Arrows compare the original values; = means equal.

Overall team comparison

Based on which team has more green arrows in the statistics below; this is not the model prediction.

Home · Sunderland ↓	Away · Leeds United ↑

Team performance

Current season, recent form and home/away performance.

Home · Sunderland		Away · Leeds United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Current points per game	0.666666666667	↑Current points per game	1.50
=Current matches	6	=Current matches	6
↓Current form points per game	0.80	↑Current form points per game	1.20
=Current form matches	5	=Current form matches	5
↓Current venue points per game	1.00	↑Current venue points per game	1.333333333333
=Current venue matches	3	=Current venue matches	3
↓Current goals scored per game	1.00	↑Current goals scored per game	1.333333333333
↑Current goals conceded per game	2.00	↓Current goals conceded per game	0.833333333333
↓Current form goals scored per game	1.00	↑Current form goals scored per game	1.40
↑Current form goals conceded per game	2.00	↓Current form goals conceded per game	1.00
↓Current venue goals scored per game	0.333333333333	↑Current venue goals scored per game	1.00
↑Current venue goals conceded per game	1.333333333333	↓Current venue goals conceded per game	1.00

Player pool

Minutes-weighted player performance across the active squad.

Home · Sunderland		Away · Leeds United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Rating	6.739465682062	↑Rating	7.078707220887
↓Minutes-weighted prior minutes	417.102470552671	↑Minutes-weighted prior minutes	437.187619131575
↓Minutes-weighted prior appearances	5.268850883656	↑Minutes-weighted prior appearances	5.538475448723
↑Active pool players	23	↓Active pool players	20
↓Goals per 90	0.076610981625	↑Goals per 90	0.131791930386
↓Assists per 90	0.029313033856	↑Assists per 90	0.070726479824
↑Shots per 90	1.233829729554	↓Shots per 90	0.941812160151
↑Shots on target per 90	0.383597999758	↓Shots on target per 90	0.381244871553
↑Key passes per 90	0.860864983952	↓Key passes per 90	0.523435780056
↓Saves per 90	0.139681138326	↑Saves per 90	0.415509931743

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper contribution used by the model.

Home · Sunderland		Away · Leeds United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Goalkeeper save proportion	0.40	↑Goalkeeper save proportion	0.807692307692
↓Goalkeeper rating	6.36	↑Goalkeeper rating	7.24

Team strength

Longer-term team-strength ratings and their evidence base.

Home · Sunderland		Away · Leeds United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Strength rating rating	1594.149242172869	↑Strength rating rating	1664.790802739147
↑Strength rating prior matches	284.00	↓Strength rating prior matches	253.00

Defensive pressure

How each side has limited shots, shots on target and key passes.

Home · Sunderland		Away · Leeds United
Statistic	Value	Statistic	Value
↓Shot suppression ratio	0.894140539183	↑Shot suppression ratio	0.942327235772
↓Shots on target suppression ratio	0.904955085482	↑Shots on target suppression ratio	1.422619047619
↑Keypass suppression ratio	0.892166892167	↓Keypass suppression ratio	0.883705475811

Prices are from published captures. Virtual bets use your competition bankroll. Virtual balances have no cash value.