← Model Top Picks

Aston Villa v Manchester City

Premier League · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 12:30 BST
League table · home team first
#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
12Aston Villa7223-48LDLWDW
1Manchester City77001221WWWWWW

Team-data forecast · player stats pending. Chances will update when the data arrives.

Model Chances

Home16.4%
Draw26.8%
Away56.8%

Market Estimate

Home19.8%
First captured 21.5%
17 Oct 21:15 BST
Draw21.9%
First captured 23.0%
17 Oct 21:15 BST
Away58.3%
First captured 55.5%
17 Oct 21:15 BST

Lowest Odds

Home4.40 (≈10/3)
First captured 4.00 (3/1)
17 Oct 21:15 BST
Ladbrokes
Draw4.00 (3/1)
First captured 3.80 (14/5)
17 Oct 21:15 BST
888sport, William Hill
Away1.52 (≈8/15)
First captured 1.64 (≈8/13)
17 Oct 21:15 BST
LiveScore Bet

Highest Odds

Home5.20 (≈4/1)
First captured 4.70 (≈7/2)
17 Oct 21:15 BST
Betfair Exchange, Smarkets
Draw4.60 (≈7/2)
First captured 4.40 (≈10/3)
17 Oct 21:15 BST
Betfair Exchange, Smarkets
Away1.74 (≈8/11) Matchbook

Bet

Home
Draw
Away
Explore statisticsBookmaker odds
Bet Strategy options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 43.2%

  • Primary: £7.77 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £38.85
  • Cover: £2.23 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £28.85 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 56.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.68 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 43.2%

  • Primary: £8.00 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £36.00
  • Cover: £2.00 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £26.00 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 56.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.68 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 73.2%

  • Primary: £4.01 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £20.05
  • Cover: £5.99 on Away at 1.67 with Coral — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £10.05 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 26.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.52 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 73.2%

  • Primary: £8.00 on Away at 1.67 with Coral — returns £13.36
  • Cover: £2.00 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £3.36 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 26.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.52 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 83.6%

  • Primary: £4.01 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £18.05
  • Cover: £5.99 on Away at 1.67 with Coral — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £8.05 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 16.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.18 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 83.6%

  • Primary: £7.77 on Away at 1.67 with Coral — returns £12.98
  • Cover: £2.23 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £2.98 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 16.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.18 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Predicted lineups

Aston Villa

  1. Zion Suzuki 1 Goalkeeper
  2. Ian Maatsen 22 Left-back
  3. Pau Torres 14 Centre-back
  4. Victor Lindelöf 3 Centre-back
  5. Matty Cash 2 Right-back
  6. Boubacar Kamara 8 Defensive midfielder
  7. João Gomes 8 Defensive midfielder
  8. Emiliano Buendía 10 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Johan Manzambi 44 Attacking midfielder
  10. John McGinn 7 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Nicolas Jackson 15 Forward

Manchester City

  1. Gianluigi Donnarumma 1 Goalkeeper
  2. Nico O'Reilly 33 Left-back
  3. Marc Guéhi 6 Centre-back
  4. Rúben Dias 3 Centre-back
  5. Matheus Nunes 27 Right-back
  6. Elliot Anderson 8 Defensive midfielder
  7. Enzo Fernández 8 Defensive midfielder
  8. Jérémy Doku 11 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Rayan Cherki 10 Attacking midfielder
  10. Iliman Ndiaye 10 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Erling Haaland 9 Forward

Player availability

Reported team news can change. “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Aston Villa

  • Aaron Wan-Bissaka — Out · Injured
  • Amadou Onana — Out · Injured
  • Matteo Ruggeri — Out · Injured
  • Johan Manzambi — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
  • George Hemmings — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Manchester City

  • Antoine Semenyo — Out · Injured
  • Josko Gvardiol — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

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