← Model Top Picks

Lincoln City v Burnley

Championship · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST
League table · home team first
#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
18Lincoln City11335-1012Win: WWin: WLoss: LLoss: LLoss: LDraw: D
22Burnley11155-58Draw: DLoss: LDraw: DWin: WDraw: DLoss: L

Model Chances

Home39.0%
Draw23.9%
Away37.1%

Market Estimate

Home32.6%
First captured 36.2%
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Draw27.6%
First captured 27.9%
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Away39.9%
First captured 35.9%
17 Oct 15:43 BST

Lowest Odds

Home2.75 (7/4)
First captured 2.50 (6/4)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Betway, LiveScore Bet, Virgin Bet
Draw3.20 (11/5)
First captured 3.25 (9/4)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
LiveScore Bet, Virgin Bet
Away2.25 (5/4)
First captured 2.55 (≈6/4)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
BoyleSports

Highest Odds

Home3.10 (21/10)
First captured 2.60 (8/5)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook
Draw3.65 (≈13/5)
First captured 3.35 (≈23/10)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Betfair Exchange
Away2.46 (≈6/4)
First captured 2.60 (8/5)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook

Bet

Home
Draw
Away
Bet Strategy options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 62.9%

  • Primary: £7.22 on Home at 3.00 with Unibet — returns £21.66
  • Cover: £2.78 on Draw at 3.60 with Betfred — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £11.66 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 37.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.36 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 62.9%

  • Primary: £6.66 on Draw at 3.60 with Betfred — returns £23.98
  • Cover: £3.34 on Home at 3.00 with Unibet — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £13.98 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 37.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.36 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 76.1%

  • Primary: £5.83 on Home at 3.00 with Unibet — returns £17.49
  • Cover: £4.17 on Away at 2.40 with Casumo — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.49 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 23.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.33 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 76.1%

  • Primary: £6.66 on Away at 2.40 with Casumo — returns £15.98
  • Cover: £3.34 on Home at 3.00 with Unibet — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £5.98 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 23.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.33 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 61.0%

  • Primary: £5.83 on Draw at 3.60 with Betfred — returns £20.99
  • Cover: £4.17 on Away at 2.40 with Casumo — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £10.99 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 39.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.40 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 61.0%

  • Primary: £7.22 on Away at 2.40 with Casumo — returns £17.33
  • Cover: £2.78 on Draw at 3.60 with Betfred — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.33 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 39.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.40 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Predicted lineups

Lincoln City

  1. George Wickens 1 Goalkeeper
  2. Callum Elder 20 Centre-back
  3. Sonny Bradley 15 Centre-back
  4. Ryley Towler 6 Centre-back
  5. Adam Reach 3 Left wing-back
  6. Ivan Varfolomeev 24 Central midfielder
  7. Conor McGrandles 14 Central midfielder
  8. Andrei Coubis 4 Right wing-back
  9. Chiedozie Ogbene 21 Left forward
  10. Rob Street 17 Forward
  11. Reeco Hackett 7 Right forward

Burnley

  1. Grégoire Coudert 37 Goalkeeper
  2. Lucas Pires 23 Left-back
  3. Igor Julio 3 Centre-back
  4. Hjalmar Ekdal 18 Centre-back
  5. Kyle Walker 2 Right-back
  6. Reo Hatate 5 Defensive midfielder
  7. Max Alleyne 68 Defensive midfielder
  8. Dastan Satpaev 12 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Josh Laurent 29 Attacking midfielder
  10. Largie Ramazani Right attacking midfielder
  11. Jamie Vardy 9 Forward

Player availability

Reported team news can change. “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Lincoln City

  • Tendayi Darikwa — Out · Injured
  • Mason Melia — Out · Injured
  • Deji Elerewe — Out · Suspended
  • Freddie Draper — Out · Suspended
  • Tom Hamer — Out · Suspended

Burnley

  • Enock Agyei — Out · Injured
  • Bashir Humphreys — Out · Injured
  • Ashley Barnes — Out · Injured
  • Hannibal Mejbri — Out · Injured
  • Aaron Ramsey — Out · Injured
  • Anel Ahmedhodzic — Out · Injured
  • Josh Cullen — Doubtful · Unfit
  • Jaydon Banel — Doubtful · Unfit
  • Jordan Beyer — Out · Unfit
  • Zeki Amdouni — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

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