← Model Top Picks

Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough

Championship · Kickoff 23 Oct 2026 20:00 BST
League table · home team first
#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
15Bolton Wanderers11425-314LWWLWD
3Middlesbrough11641622WDDWWD

Model Chances

Home28.0%
Draw27.6%
Away44.4%

Market Estimate

Home19.4%
First captured 21.4%
16 Oct 20:40 BST
Draw21.7%
First captured 23.4%
16 Oct 20:40 BST
Away58.9%
First captured 55.1%
16 Oct 20:40 BST

Lowest Odds

Home4.33 (≈10/3)
First captured 4.20 (≈10/3)
16 Oct 20:40 BST
BoyleSports
Draw4.00 (3/1)
First captured 3.85 (≈14/5)
16 Oct 20:40 BST
LiveScore Bet
Away1.56 (≈4/7)
First captured 1.66 (≈4/6)
16 Oct 20:40 BST
Grosvenor

Highest Odds

Home5.40 (≈9/2)
First captured 4.40 (≈10/3)
16 Oct 20:40 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Draw4.60 (≈7/2)
First captured 4.00 (3/1)
16 Oct 20:40 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets
Away1.66 (≈4/6)
First captured 1.68 (≈4/6)
16 Oct 20:40 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook

Bet

Home
Draw
Away
Explore statisticsBookmaker odds
Bet Strategy options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 55.6%

  • Primary: £7.77 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £38.85
  • Cover: £2.23 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfred — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £28.85 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 44.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.68 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 55.6%

  • Primary: £8.00 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfred — returns £36.00
  • Cover: £2.00 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £26.00 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 44.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £23.68 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 72.4%

  • Primary: £3.93 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £19.65
  • Cover: £6.07 on Away at 1.65 with Coral — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £9.65 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 27.6%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.41 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 72.4%

  • Primary: £8.00 on Away at 1.65 with Coral — returns £13.20
  • Cover: £2.00 on Home at 5.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £3.20 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 27.6%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.41 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 72.0%

  • Primary: £3.93 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfred — returns £17.69
  • Cover: £6.07 on Away at 1.65 with Coral — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £7.69 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 28.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.07 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 72.0%

  • Primary: £7.77 on Away at 1.65 with Coral — returns £12.82
  • Cover: £2.23 on Draw at 4.50 with Betfred — returns £10.04

The primary outcome makes £2.82 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.04. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 28.0%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.07 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Predicted lineups

Bolton Wanderers

  1. Gavin Bazunu 31 Goalkeeper
  2. Akin Famewo 23 Left-back
  3. Eoin Toal 18 Centre-back
  4. Lewis Brunt 3 Centre-back
  5. Gaizka Larrazabal 22 Right-back
  6. Ethan Erhahon 21 Defensive midfielder
  7. Josh Sheehan 8 Defensive midfielder
  8. Thierry Gale 11 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Atsuki Ito 17 Attacking midfielder
  10. Samuel Iling-Junior 33 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Sam Dalby 10 Forward

Middlesbrough

  1. Radek Vítek 23 Goalkeeper
  2. Neto Borges 21 Left-back
  3. Ashley Phillips 26 Centre-back
  4. Adilson Malanda 29 Centre-back
  5. Callum Brittain 2 Right-back
  6. Sebastian Berhalter 6 Defensive midfielder
  7. Aidan Morris 10 Defensive midfielder
  8. Tommy Conway 9 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Riley McGree 8 Attacking midfielder
  10. Amario Cozier-Duberry 19 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Will Lankshear 27 Forward

Player availability

Reported team news can change. “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Bolton Wanderers

  • Chris Forino — Out · Injured

Middlesbrough

  • Alfie Jones — Out · Injured
  • Rokas Pukstas — Out · Injured
  • David Strelec — Out · Injured

Log in

Open login page · Create an account