← Model Top Picks

Cardiff City v Birmingham City

Championship · Kickoff 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST
League table · home team first
#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
19Cardiff City11254111Draw: DLoss: LWin: WLoss: LWin: WDraw: D
4Birmingham City11551920Loss: LWin: WDraw: DWin: WWin: WWin: W

Model Chances

Home48.5%
Draw24.7%
Away26.8%

Market Estimate

Home35.2%
First captured 38.2%
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Draw25.5%
First captured 26.5%
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Away39.4%
First captured 35.3%
17 Oct 15:43 BST

Lowest Odds

Home2.50 (6/4)
First captured 2.30 (13/10)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
BoyleSports
Draw3.50 (5/2)
First captured 3.25 (9/4)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
888sport, Virgin Bet, William Hill
Away2.25 (5/4)
First captured 2.50 (6/4)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
BoyleSports

Highest Odds

Home2.86 (≈15/8)
First captured 2.62 (≈13/8)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Matchbook
Draw3.95 (≈3/1)
First captured 3.75 (11/4)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook
Away2.50 (6/4)
First captured 2.75 (7/4)
17 Oct 15:43 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook, Smarkets

Bet

Home
Draw
Away
Bet Strategy options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 73.2%

  • Primary: £7.33 on Home at 2.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £20.16
  • Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £10.16 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 26.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £15.87 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 73.2%

  • Primary: £6.36 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £23.85
  • Cover: £3.64 on Home at 2.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £13.85 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 26.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £15.87 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 75.3%

  • Primary: £5.91 on Home at 2.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £16.25
  • Cover: £4.09 on Away at 2.45 with Coral — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £6.25 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 24.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.96 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 75.3%

  • Primary: £6.36 on Away at 2.45 with Coral — returns £15.58
  • Cover: £3.64 on Home at 2.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £5.58 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 24.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £12.96 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 51.5%

  • Primary: £5.91 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £22.16
  • Cover: £4.09 on Away at 2.45 with Coral — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £12.16 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 48.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.82 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 51.5%

  • Primary: £7.33 on Away at 2.45 with Coral — returns £17.96
  • Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.96 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 48.5%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.82 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Predicted lineups

Cardiff City

  1. Nathan Trott 13 Goalkeeper
  2. Joel Bagan 3 Left-back
  3. Will Fish 2 Centre-back
  4. Krystian Bielik 5 Centre-back
  5. Ronan Kpakio 44 Right-back
  6. Alex Robertson 18 Defensive midfielder
  7. Chris Willock 16 Left midfielder
  8. David Turnbull 14 Central midfielder
  9. Cian Ashford 45 Central midfielder
  10. Ollie Tanner 11 Right midfielder
  11. Jack Moylan 10 Forward

Birmingham City

  1. James Beadle 25 Goalkeeper
  2. Alex Cochrane 20 Left-back
  3. Christoph Klarer 4 Centre-back
  4. Phil Neumann 5 Centre-back
  5. Bright Osayi-Samuel 26 Right-back
  6. Max Bird 6 Defensive midfielder
  7. Tomoki Iwata 24 Defensive midfielder
  8. Liam Millar 7 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Jay Stansfield 28 Attacking midfielder
  10. Carlos Vicente 7 Right attacking midfielder
  11. August Priske 9 Forward

Player availability

Reported team news can change. “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Cardiff City

  • Calum Chambers — Out · Injured
  • Dylan Lawlor — Out · Injured
  • Rubin Colwill — Out · Injured
  • Gabriel Keita — Out · Suspended
  • Yousef Salech — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Birmingham City

  • Marc Leonard — Out · Injured
  • Paik Seung-Ho — Out · Injured

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