← Model Top Picks

Crystal Palace v Newcastle United

Premier League · Kickoff 25 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT
League table · home team first
#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
14Crystal Palace7214-87Loss: LWin: WLoss: LDraw: DWin: WLoss: L
11Newcastle United7223-48Win: WDraw: DLoss: LWin: WLoss: LLoss: L

Model Chances

Home43.4%
Draw30.7%
Away25.9%

Market Estimate

Home32.5%
First captured 34.4%
18 Oct 15:22 BST
Draw26.5%
First captured 26.6%
18 Oct 15:22 BST
Away41.1%
First captured 39.0%
18 Oct 15:22 BST

Lowest Odds

Home2.75 (7/4)
First captured 2.62 (≈13/8)
18 Oct 15:22 BST
LeoVegas, LiveScore Bet
Draw3.40 (12/5) LiveScore Bet, Sky Bet, 888sport, William Hill
Away2.20 (6/5)
First captured 2.25 (5/4)
18 Oct 15:22 BST
Betway

Highest Odds

Home3.10 (21/10)
First captured 2.94 (≈19/10)
18 Oct 15:22 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook
Draw3.75 (11/4)
First captured 3.70 (≈11/4)
18 Oct 15:22 BST
BoyleSports
Away2.40 (7/5)
First captured 2.50 (6/4)
18 Oct 15:22 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook

Bet

Home
Draw
Away
Bet Strategy options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 74.1%

  • Primary: £7.33 on Home at 3.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £21.99
  • Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £11.99 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 25.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.67 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 74.1%

  • Primary: £6.66 on Draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports — returns £24.98
  • Cover: £3.34 on Home at 3.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £14.98 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 25.9%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.67 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 69.3%

  • Primary: £5.74 on Home at 3.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £17.22
  • Cover: £4.26 on Away at 2.35 with Unibet — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.22 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 30.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.18 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 69.3%

  • Primary: £6.66 on Away at 2.35 with Unibet — returns £15.65
  • Cover: £3.34 on Home at 3.00 with Betfair Sportsbook — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £5.65 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 30.7%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.18 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 56.6%

  • Primary: £5.74 on Draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports — returns £21.53
  • Cover: £4.26 on Away at 2.35 with Unibet — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £11.53 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 43.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.45 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 56.6%

  • Primary: £7.33 on Away at 2.35 with Unibet — returns £17.23
  • Cover: £2.67 on Draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports — returns £10.01

The primary outcome makes £7.23 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.01. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 43.4%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.45 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Predicted lineups

Crystal Palace

  1. Walter Benítez 44 Goalkeeper
  2. Axel Disasi Centre-back
  3. Chris Richards 26 Centre-back
  4. Jaydee Canvot 6 Centre-back
  5. Tyrick Mitchell 3 Left wing-back
  6. Adam Wharton 20 Central midfielder
  7. Jefferson Lerma 8 Central midfielder
  8. Anan Khalaili 25 Right wing-back
  9. Yéremy Pino 10 Attacking midfielder
  10. Daichi Kamada 18 Attacking midfielder
  11. Jørgen Strand Larsen 22 Forward

Newcastle United

  1. Lukás Hornícek 21 Goalkeeper
  2. Lewis Hall 3 Left-back
  3. Sven Botman 4 Centre-back
  4. Malick Thiaw 12 Centre-back
  5. Amar Dedic 37 Right-back
  6. Joelinton 7 Defensive midfielder
  7. Nico González 14 Defensive midfielder
  8. Harvey Barnes 11 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Yoane Wissa 9 Attacking midfielder
  10. Jacob Murphy 23 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Matias Fernandez-Pardo 20 Forward

Player availability

Reported team news can change. “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Crystal Palace

  • Chadi Riad — Out · Injured
  • Takehiro Tomiyasu — Out · Injured
  • Quinten Timber — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
  • Dean Henderson — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Newcastle United

  • Ewen Jaouen — Out · Injured
  • Anthony Elanga — Out · Injured
  • Jacob Ramsey — Out · Injured
  • Tino Livramento — Out · Injured

Log in

Open login page · Create an account