← Model Top Picks

Sunderland v Leeds United

Premier League · Kickoff 25 Oct 2026 16:30 GMT
League table · home team first
#TeamPWDLGDPtsLast 6
20Sunderland7115-84Win: WDraw: DLoss: LLoss: LLoss: LLoss: L
7Leeds United7241310Draw: DDraw: DWin: WDraw: DLoss: LDraw: D

Model Chances

Home36.1%
Draw28.2%
Away35.8%

Market Estimate

Home31.8%
First captured 33.6%
18 Oct 18:23 BST
Draw29.4%
First captured 28.9%
18 Oct 18:23 BST
Away38.7%
First captured 37.5%
18 Oct 18:23 BST

Lowest Odds

Home2.80 (9/5)
First captured 2.70 (17/10)
18 Oct 18:23 BST
Ladbrokes, LeoVegas
Draw3.10 (21/10)
First captured 3.05 (≈2/1)
18 Oct 18:23 BST
LiveScore Bet, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, 888sport, Virgin Bet, William Hill
Away2.23 (≈5/4)
First captured 2.40 (7/5)
18 Oct 18:23 BST
LiveScore Bet

Highest Odds

Home3.15 (≈21/10)
First captured 3.00 (2/1)
18 Oct 18:23 BST
Casumo
Draw3.30 (23/10)
First captured 3.40 (12/5)
18 Oct 18:23 BST
Betfair Exchange, Betfred, Coral, Matchbook, Smarkets
Away2.66 (≈13/8)
First captured 2.63 (≈13/8)
18 Oct 18:23 BST
Betfair Exchange, Matchbook

Bet

Home
Draw
Away
Bet Strategy options

Each option puts most of the £10.00 on the first outcome and only enough on the second outcome to cover the full stake:

Home + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 64.2%

  • Primary: £6.96 on Home at 3.15 with Casumo — returns £21.92
  • Cover: £3.04 on Draw at 3.30 with Betfred — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £11.92 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 35.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.12 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 64.2%

  • Primary: £6.82 on Draw at 3.30 with Betfred — returns £22.51
  • Cover: £3.18 on Home at 3.15 with Casumo — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £12.51 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Away wins (pre-match model chance 35.8%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £16.12 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Home + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 71.8%

  • Primary: £6.00 on Home at 3.15 with Casumo — returns £18.90
  • Cover: £4.00 on Away at 2.50 with Coral — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £8.90 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 28.2%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.94 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Home · Combined pre-match model chance 71.8%

  • Primary: £6.82 on Away at 2.50 with Coral — returns £17.05
  • Cover: £3.18 on Home at 3.15 with Casumo — returns £10.02

The primary outcome makes £7.05 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.02. If Draw wins (pre-match model chance 28.2%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £13.94 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Draw + Away · Combined pre-match model chance 63.9%

  • Primary: £6.00 on Draw at 3.30 with Betfred — returns £19.80
  • Cover: £4.00 on Away at 2.50 with Coral — returns £10.00

The primary outcome makes £9.80 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 36.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.22 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

Away + Draw · Combined pre-match model chance 63.9%

  • Primary: £6.96 on Away at 2.50 with Coral — returns £17.40
  • Cover: £3.04 on Draw at 3.30 with Betfred — returns £10.03

The primary outcome makes £7.40 profit. The cover outcome recovers the £10.00 total stake, plus £0.03. If Home wins (pre-match model chance 36.1%), the full £10.00 is lost.

Dutching is available. A different split can make a profit if either selected outcome wins. With the £10.00 example stake, the winning selection would return £14.22 whichever of these two outcomes occurs.

This reduces the number of losing outcomes; it does not remove the risk, guarantee a profit, or show that the approach is profitable over time. Prices can change before both bets are placed.

Predicted lineups

Sunderland

  1. Robin Roefs 22 Goalkeeper
  2. Reinildo Mandava 17 Left-back
  3. Omar Alderete 15 Centre-back
  4. Nordi Mukiele 20 Centre-back
  5. Trai Hume 32 Right-back
  6. Noah Sadiki 27 Defensive midfielder
  7. Granit Xhaka 34 Defensive midfielder
  8. Malick Fofana 39 Left attacking midfielder
  9. Enzo Le Fée 28 Attacking midfielder
  10. Nilson Angulo 10 Right attacking midfielder
  11. Wilson Isidor 18 Forward

Leeds United

  1. James Trafford 1 Goalkeeper
  2. Tarik Muharemovic 5 Centre-back
  3. Nico Elvedi 30 Centre-back
  4. James Justin 24 Centre-back
  5. Gabriel Gudmundsson 3 Left wing-back
  6. Ethan Ampadu 4 Central midfielder
  7. Anton Stach 18 Central midfielder
  8. Ao Tanaka 22 Central midfielder
  9. Jayden Bogle 2 Right wing-back
  10. Dominic Calvert-Lewin 9 Forward
  11. Noah Okafor 19 Forward

Player availability

Reported team news can change. “Doubtful” is not a confirmed absence.

Sunderland

  • Dan Ballard — Out · Injured
  • Romaine Mundle — Out · Injured
  • Kevin Danso — Out · Suspended
  • Thomas Meunier — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
  • Brian Brobbey — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

Leeds United

  • Mateo Joseph — Out · Injured
  • Joe Rodon — Doubtful · Injured doubtful
  • Daniel James — Doubtful · Injured doubtful

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